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Third Quarter of 2008 July 2008 ... August 2008 ... September 2008
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07/12//08 'If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a
state of civilization, it expects what never was and never
will be.' -- Thomas Jefferson" Appologies to everyone, last weeks post was not made.
I was ou a vacation, of sorts. Here are a couple of quotes: "Every tick upwards in
the price of oil says no. Every day that passes makes an
attack on Iran harder to pull off" and "even where
there's a will, there may not be a way." These
in a nutshell sum up the article's purpose, that any attack
on Iran could be far to costly to bear and unlikely to
render any beneficial result. (071108f) Then
too, frighteningly and not surprisingly the concluding line
is "And yet, of course, for the maddest gamblers and
dystopian dreamers in our history, never say never" The
war on terror's home front gets some practice in
(071008l) You
Tube users are targeted for "data collection" who is next?
(071008n) Shane, of The New York Times: "The military trainers
who came to Guantanamo Bay in December 2002 based an entire
interrogation class on a chart showing the effects of
'coercive management techniques' for possible use on
prisoners, including 'sleep deprivation,' 'prolonged
constraint,' and 'exposure.' What the trainers did not
say, and may not have known, was that
their chart had been copied verbatim from a 1957 Air Force
study of Chinese Communist techniques used during the Korean
War to obtain confessions, many of them false, from American
prisoners." (071008g) How
the US does a "practice run" for anti-terrorist activities
&endash; throw out a net fine enough and you'll find
those with tickets, parole violators, illegal immigrants and
such like and so forth &endash; everyone gets to be a
suspect in this scenario (063008d) A very broad overview
of the interlaced crises that are forming a deadly web that
threaten humanity as a whole. One way or the other
time grows short. (062808c) A few stories about the
interface between returning veterans and the society they
fought to protect. (062808d) Jason Straziuso, of The Associated Press:
"Militants killed more US and NATO troops in Afghanistan in
June than in Iraq for the second straight month, a grim
milestone Europe: The
housing bubble's deflation in Merry Olde Englande seems to
be getting underway. Their downturn may be
larger that that in the US but less than that of Japans
which saw a 70% decline over a period of 10 years or so.
(071208d) Poland and the US "get together" on missile defense.
But there is also a sweetener involved, the
US and Euroland want to keep an eye on Russia
(071008w) "Muddle East" Central Theater: Gaza &endash;
Israel - Jordan &endash; Lebanon &endash; Palestine &endash;
Syria The saber rattling is amplified, this
article suggests that "time is running out" for a preemptive
attack on Iran both in the US and Israel for political
reasons. I believe that, if a war is to
erupt, it will be full of surprises. I fear that it will
spread and, as in WW1, nearly a century ago, grow large,
involve sets of nations in opposition to each other and
result in considerable changes in the world's political
map. (071108a) Israel: Maybe
one does not need bombs to kill. Is this the next
adaptation? (071008j) A brief on a book by a CIA agent who calls the shots
as they appear … so of course his ideas will go
nowhere. (071008a) Israel
and the US do not have identical interests. Greater Islamic Region: Eastern Theater:
Afghanistan - Iraq - Iran - Pakistan - Saudi Arabia Another
report of an impending US attack on Iran,
this one is slightly different and so it gets some
coverage; all I can say is "time will tell"
(063008d) While this story has a focus on Iran &endash; it is in
context with the wider concerns of the region and the "war
on terror". Much
is covered, the covert and special ops ongoing in Iran and
the nature of the US "allies" inside Iran
(062908c) Meanwhile an
Iranian military official talks about shutting off the oil
flow in the event of an attack among other
options (062908d) Afghanistan: One person's good news is another's bad news.
The
stalemate in this country has its benefits.
(071208c) Iraq: There may be signs that the Iraqi government,
something of an Iranian surrogate, is
now making its own moves and demands which the US will have
to listen to, maybe even accede to?
(071208d) The old song went "should
I stay or should I go now?" Well it seems Iraq has an answer
for us and it is not the one Bush the dumber
wants. (071108g) Hey,
there may be even MORE oil in Iraq than previously
thought, and despite counter claims OIL is
the reason we are there and, well, guess what, US plans,
goals, benchmarks and oil companies are all still messed
up (071108b) We have ended terrorism in Baghdad was, in sum,
what the Iraq government declared one day, but the next,
well there was a lack
of proof for that, to say the least.
(071008s) Do we, supporters of Democracy and an Independent Iraq,
want a
referendum on the presence of US forces in that
country? (071008c) For some time now the "news" has been about the success
in Iraq. The violence being down, IED's down, attack numbers
are also down. As has been mentioned before the surge is
given credit even though many other factors, equally or more
important, are given short shrift. This
article takes a closer look at the "urge to surge" and what
"success" looks like today (063008b) Iran: We
will NOT let Iran shut the Persian Gulf down.
That is the word, not unexpected, however.
(071008o) CIA
agent reports that "the agency" stifled itself
regarding reports that Bush the dumber, it would
seem, would not like. (071008d) The
US gets help from a group allied to Al Qaida in its efforts
to "deal" with Iran's government (062808) Pakistan: A set of tales in the post 9/11 "Pakistan front" in
the GWOT. How
infighting inside or between US agencies have muted the
effectiveness of the "war effort"
(062808) Although there is a story about a Pakistani army
attack in the Khyber agency, this
story shows that serious problems exist in the city of
Peshawar (062808b) Here
is more on the government attacks in the Khyber area.
Militants say they'll suspend their peace talks
… one wonders about the prospect of escalation but only
time will tell. (063008a) Nicaragua: Peru: Everything
is fine at a large plant in California, no
problems, nothing at all is wrong here, move along, move
along. (071008r) Drought,
wildfires, global warming and water supply … an
emerging concern that may only grow worse?
(071008f) Bad,
bad economy, very bad, but you know you have to smile when
you say that (071008q) This story has us being reassured that the Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac system is OK. The
track record for this past week show double digit losses in
the value both their shares and both are down more than 50%
in YTD figures &endash; not at all inspiring
(071108h) My question is this if they down continue to
spiral down … what happens because of their losses,
which would be measured in trillions? The
rescue is made for Fannie and Freddie but for how
long and will this be the answer every time a
financial crunch hits &endash; some kind of government
guarantee? (071208b) McStain has pain, if Zogby is accurate. He
is losing in his home state of AZ. Maybe he's seeing "shades
of Gore" who lost his home state and the general election,
well he sort of lost it, you know
(071108c) How to steal an election, we see at least one detail
that takes us back to Ohio, 2004. What portends this time
around? Will
we again have several millions of voters have their votes
tossed as before? Maybe the strategy, this time around, will
be to not let them in the door in the first
place; it worked in Florida in 2000
(071008x) The
machines we use to vote on are not safe, for voting that is
and so therefore there is a problem in our electoral system
that needs to be rooted out. No matter, however,
it won't be. (071008m) Repuglican,
attack machine gears up for the election: the talking point,
now get this, voter fraud will be used to
"explain" the "surge" of Democratic registrations and vote
tallies (071008k) Some
work on Obama and the FISA bill, silly stuff this world of
ours. (071008d) Here is more on that FISA bill, typical of many
aspects of this administration and its
supporters,
the
bill certainly was poorly named in that it had a raft of
other items, which had nothing at all to do with FISA, and
the telecom attached to it. (071008h) And
here is what Obama could have said; it was said by
someone else so read it and "feel the rage"
(071108d) US Knew of Mass Korean Killings: the Associated
Press reports: "The American colonel, troubled by what he
was hearing, tried to stall at first. But the declassified
record shows he finally told his South Korean counterpart it
'would be permitted' to machine-gun 3,500 political
prisoners, to keep them from joining approaching enemy
forces. In
the early days of the Korean War, other American officers
observed, photographed and confidentially reported on such
wholesale executions by their South Korean ally, a secretive
slaughter believed to have killed 100,000 or more
leftists and supposed sympathizers, usually
without charge or trial, in a few weeks in mid-1950."
(071008t) Why
this person is not too "celebratory" on the Fourth.
(071008b) A
backlash against the feminist movement is underway in Merry
Olde England, one wonders what the writer would
be saying if she were in the US? (063008g) Polarizing our society? The
role that taxes play in structuring how US society has
become separated into the haves and have-nots.
(063008f) Public
housing and governmental programs and policies that affect
it have had at best a checkered history; this is
a good portrait of how things have been going
(052808e) A
judge rejects Bush the Dumbass' view on wiretaps,
of course it is a California judge, but still
some offer of hope is here (071008p) You know, it is not as if the ideas and solutions, at
least in part, are not already here. The
problem is taking those
solutions and or ideas and USING them.
(062908e)
'If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a
state of civilization, it expects what never was and never
will be.' -- Thomas Jefferson" An
example of how a US citizen was dispossessed of rights
anyone who knows the constitution would think were among
our inalienable (071808d) Bolton,
gets is right on Iran, and is unhappy about it, that is a
good thing (071708d) The
current "thinking" on getting our man, as Bush the dumber
once put it (071508q) So
there appears to be a difference of opinion between the US
and Israel regarding the "threat" Iran poses.
Rumors fly, as do theories as to why the two intelligence
communities seem to be diverging as to their views.
(071408a) I think that my "designated villains" in this
era would be pleased to have either or, ideally both, the US
and Israel attack Iran. That would work well for them. The FISA flap: And another report on
the FISA thing, the TeleCom thing and the torture thing. It
seems that there is plenty of blame, read guilt, to go
around just s it is unlikely that Bush or his cronies will
EVER be held accountable for any of their crimes
(071508p) The
recent FISA law, signed by the great dumbbell himself, is
challenged in court (071508i) A
new book, "The Dark Side" exposes the "torture scandal"
the author answers six important questions relevant
to the whole shit-mess. Read all you can stand and then go
have some intoxicants. (071508e) The
predicted effect of the "Bush Wars" in creating a huge
number of PTSD cases is coming to pass. US societal
institutions, law enforcement, the courts and other
community organizations are "working on it" but the raw
numbers are daunting and there is more to come.
(071408c) There have been crimes committed by US troops in Iraq.
That much has been in the news, what has also been in the
news, well sort of, was the lowering of the bar used in
accepting civilians for duty. It
seems crime follows criminals into the service &endash; I
might add that this has an effect on the US war
effort. (071408b) Some time ago, months now, we heard that Canada was not
going to provide the kind of refuge it did during the
Vietnam War,
well, one seeker has had something of a reprieve but only
time will tell if "all is well" (071308b) Europe: Nuclear
moves ahead in England, eight new plants are
planned. (071308q) "Muddle East" Central Theater: Gaza &endash;
Israel - Jordan &endash; Lebanon &endash; Palestine
&endash; Syria As
if to exemplify the apparent impossibility of resolving the
differences between Israel and its opponents, this story
shows much. After a prisoner exchange between
Israel and opposition forces in Lebanon, the manner in which
each side treated its dead and talked about each other shows
how painful and deep the divide that so far has prevented
any peace (071708) Israel: A
rather odd but seemingly "practical" manner in which an
Israeli attack upon Iran would "work"
(071308p) Lebanon: The
current status of Hezbollah has opportunities and perils.
As with so many aspects of the Muddle East"
only time will tell. (071408d) Syria: Greater Islamic Region: Eastern Theater:
Afghanistan - Iraq - Iran - Pakistan - Saudi Arabia Iran
puts a front of "good works" in Afghanistan. All to the
good? Well, maybe but the US watches
nonetheless &endash; because it has to (071708e) Afghanistan: Fighting
and in-fighting and violence is scattered across a wide
area. (071908a) A
large battle brewing in the border areas between this
country and Pakistan? A confident al Qaida and a
fractious alliance between the US and Pakistan? Time will
tell &endash; I know that I keep saying that, but it's all
that can be said. (071608f) A
US outpost is attacked, 9 US personnel die and 15 are
wounded. Violence is on the up tick and the
end is not in sight. (071308m) It is later
abandoned. An
interview with a reporter who has been on the
ground … (071508f) Iraq: The stumbling way forward,
one wonders what any military agreement being formed will
really say and or what it will mean to them
and to the US (071808g) The
SOFA negotiations seem dead. This means that
some agreement must be made to allow US forces to continue
operations in Iraq after the deadline of 12/31/2008. What
will that look like? (071408i) As has been the case for some time now "the surge" has
been hailed as a success. However
attacks on US troops and violence may be down, the stated
purpose of the surge, the meeting of benchmarks, sectarian
integration and reconciliation, an oil law and the SOFA,
which was tossed on later, all have not been met.
So, yes some positive change but no it hasn't achieved
what it set out to do. (071808e) "falling
fig leaves" the rationales for "staying the course"
leave the naked truth exposed and it is not news
to me (071808f) A
measure of good news here, jobs are being created.
They are simple but since violence is down now
efforts can be made in this area (071708b) Fallujah back in the news. Violence
this time around, it seems, centers on a conflict between
two US or government backed groups managing the security in
the city and competing for financial rewards
(071608h) A
day in the Iraq war, peace seems so far away
(071508n) this is dated July 15, 2008. Iran: "
… the American administration has effected an
about-face: it agrees to participate in discussions -
although these are presented as preliminary -
even before Iran submits to its conditions … "
(071808) And why just yesterday the idea that US was
sending anyone to meet with the Iranians was denied, loudly
and clearly. Looks
like the meeting, predicted by some to be a "non-starter"
was just that. The word "confrontation" is
used; a two-week "deadline" is mentioned. One wonders, then
what? (071908b) This article includes the text of the
resolution that, if passed, would allow a naval blockade of
Iran. (071308f) In
this article you can see how AIPAC's fingerprints are "all
over" resolution 362. The
current status of the bill is that it has not been passed
but is not dead, by any means. (071308h) At
issue, partly, in this "conflict" are the rights to possess
a set of islands that Iran has occupied for a few
decades. If these were to be "disputed" and
or a blockade enacted, what would the result be if the
Iranian forces on these islands were, in fact, then
isolated? (071308i) Pakistan: The four
crises that afflict this country do not get much coverage.
This article makes suggestions, of course, none of
which will be taken, of course and, in my opinion, if these
crises continue on &endash; they will only feed discontent
and provide cannon fodder for the anti US and government
forces (071408h) The Greater Islamic Southern Theater: Ethiopia
- The " horn of Africa" - Somalia &endash; Sudan An article describing the "gloomy statistics" which face
this continent,
problems abound but the "global warming" clock is ticking
here, faster than in most places, just as the
birth rate is (071308d) Zimbabwe: The Greater Islamic Theater: - India - Russia -
China - South East Asia India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh each have clocks
ticking, each are in the process of using or abusing
democratic ideals &endash; with
the current US administration in the van of "democratic
reform" it is no small matter for the people of these
countries to wonder "where they are headed" much
is at stake. (071608a) China: Although others are just as guilty, China
is the focus, really, of this story illuminating an unsavory
side effect of its prodigious growth.
(071508o) Russia: A
war that need not be? Georgia, Abkhaziia, Russia, NATO, the
US and more! Tensions rise and there is enough
provocation for everyone … what chips will be played,
who has the winning hand? Is this yet another "trigger" for
a wider war? (071508k) Mexico: A wave of violence is described I a
war against drugs and gangs pits tens of thousands of police
and military personnel against a wide variety of "gangs" as
collateral damage takes innocent lives
(071608c) For those who wonder what this story has to do
with Bush, I'll tell you, where are most of the drugs headed
and who helped orchestrate an electoral victory for the
current Mexican government and who has made policies which
have impacted the Mexican population? Says here that warming is a major threat to humans.
Says, also, that politics played no part in this
announcement, yeah, I believe that. Says
that in 20 to 30 years people in DC will "notice a change"
this last despite the consistent studies that are outdated
by the time they area released by which means rational
people would conclude that that prediction will also be
obsolete much, much sooner. (071808b) The
SF Bay Area avoided getting sprayed, here are some of the
eye-opening arguments that were used &endash; an
interesting point was how the meaning of "inert" is, well,
twisted beyond belief. (071308e) Baby
penguins washing up dead in Brazil. One wonders
why? (071908d) Antarctica is changing. The melt is getting underway
and
the life there is suffering for it, however humans are
taking a toll as well, with krill fishing
(071608j) Part two, a
penguin colony dies out and other reports
(071608k) Part three, the
tourists in a snapshot (071608l) Oil stories: If
I understand this epigramic story correctly, it refers to a
recent regulation in which speculation in oil futures is
being limited. Thus, oil drops about 10% in ppb.
Much has been made of the "role of speculators in driving up
the price" now we see what that may be, since it is now
being subtracted out. (071708c) But prices have not
dropped to what they were at the start of this year, or at
the start of GW Jackass' rule. So
WHEN will we have cheaper gas? Not Soon!
(071508m) Despite
the possibility that the peak oil effect is upon us, it may
still be true that oil production is still greater than the
demand, if only by a few percentage points. Why
then do we have the upsurge in ppb prices? Speculators play
a role, but here we see an explication of the effects of
"political instability" (071308k) And another cause, alluded to in other stories is
the
effect of "negative interest rates" a condition that exists
when inflation is larger than the basic interest rate
&endash; in essence loans are then free … well
sort of. (071508j) Here is some support for the main contentions in that
article, that it's "noise"
is a factor in the rising ppb of crude
(071308n) Mortgage and Housing stories A
nice overview of the answers to several basic questions
including how we got into this mess
(071808h) So
they're talking about 5 trillion dollars worth of mortgage
being "in trouble" as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both
struggle. This story is dated 07/13/08, earlier
stories indicated that a fix was in the works or that
assurances have been given. I guess Monday will tell or
time will. It says in the article that the Fed will supply
liquidity, how nice; do they just print more money?
(071308a) Some
other details emerge in this story, options are described
but reassurances are also quoted so we'll know who said what
when it's all said and done. (071308o)
Monday, July 14th will begin the "test period" to see if
investors are willing to buy up debt or if the government
will "step in" one way or another. So
it's Monday and some news is not good. Banks are
troubled, the stock market enters "bear territory" and, it
seems, there is more to come (071408e) So
it is Tuesday and the Fannie Freddie debacle takes a
dramatic turn when both, at one point, lost 25% off their
value on this day. (071508d) So
it is Wednesday and a rescue is in place for Fannie and
Freddie; it seems to have steadied them on. Losses
have not been recouped but the freefall has stopped and
their share value has risen. (071608c) The overall picture is at best muddled, many
many people around the world bought into American housing
debt and its decline has global impact, question is can the
world's financial system, interconnected as it is, "take the
beating that keeps on, well, beating?
(071608e) This article outlines how
the Fed is becoming the "dumping ground" for debt that is
too big to handle. The question is how much debt
can it absorb and still keep itself "in the black", inspire
confidence and keep the dollar worthy? (071608g)
At
last the nitty gritty, what "actions" were taken
(071408f) This
man says that we could be days away from problems if "real
action" is not taken, what it's only 40 billion or
so, what's that? (071608i) Word
for New York is that their new voting machines are
problematical (071508l) Three stories from Florida, all in a mix … one
wonders? Seems
that the Repuglicans are loosing out in Florida voting
drives (071508a) However this story makes us
wonder
if this is a same old … same old …
(071508b) And
then there is this (071508c) Just in case anyone knows banking, this
story talks about billions and trillions that are off the
books and impacting the performance and standing of very,
very large banks (071508h) Why
doesn't anyone just call them "fat lying bastards" and be
done with it &endash; then toss them in a slammer?
A memory problem in this admin? (071508g) Reganomics it was called, globalization it was
called, essentially both of these
meant a stark lack of regulation and oversight of the
economic behavior of capital markets, now we are seeing
their death knell as this administration is busied stomping
out fiscal fires with "guaranteed liquidity"
(071308c) This article follows one from a year or more ago, which
talked about the
movement of the location of the Magnetic Poles. They are
moving farther and faster recently. This one mentions their
history of reversing themselves. I have my own
theory of what that means but if I'm right my whole purpose
in writing this newsletter is moot, as are most everything
anyone does about any issue they are concerned with.
(071308j)
07/19//08